Written by Lucy Miles
Following our previous blog exploring why people believe in horoscopes, this week we’ll be looking at the surprising effects reading a positive horoscope can have on our performance across a range of tasks. Despite the lack of scientific evidence supporting the validity of horoscopes, research indicates that horoscopes can provide a kind of placebo for readers known as the Expectancy Effect. For example, when someone expects a given result (such as something predicted in a horoscope), that expectation affects the outcome (sometimes unconsciously).
Using three independent groups of participants, Magali Clobert & colleagues (2016) conducted 3 experiments to examine the effect of reading positive horoscopes vs. negative horoscopes on the interpretation of events, cognitive performance and creativity. The researchers hypothesised that reading positive versus negative horoscopes would affect each of these areas, though they didn’t hypothesize in what direction. Each experiment was split into three conditions: a positive horoscope condition, a negative horoscope condition and a neutral control condition. Consistent with their hypotheses, results from all three experiments showed that reading positive horoscopes increased the positive interpretation of events, cognitive performance and creativity when compared to the negative horoscope and control groups.
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| Could my horoscope truly improve my performance on specific tasks? |
So, why is this and are we all equally susceptible to this expectancy effect? Well, the researchers believe the effects observed within their experiments are partially influenced by an individual’s personality and their internal locus of control. Let’s delve into this a little further…
Personality traits and more precisely, neuroticism, has been found to interact with expectations. For example, research has shown that individuals high in neuroticism consulted their horoscope more often and believed more strongly in astrology (Fichten & Sunerton, 1983). This higher susceptibility to the expectancy effect and astrology among individuals high in neuroticism is likely due to their higher need for control.
Due to this, the researchers posit that the individual’s locus of control may play an important role in moderating the impact of daily horoscopes and related expectations. Locus of control refers to the extent to which people feel that they have control over the events that influence their life. Therefore, individuals who experience a lack of control are more likely to rely on horoscopes. Conversely, because astrological influences on behaviour are outside the self, people with an internal locus of control, who feel they control their own destinies, may be less susceptible to the effects of horoscopes. Indeed, Clobert et al. found that the effect of reading a positive horoscope on performance is stronger for people with low internal locus of control.
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| Internal vs. External Locus of Control |
Now, it should be mentioned that the effects observed by Clobert et al., although statistically significant, were overall quite small. This may have been due to the non-naturalistic nature of each experiment (i.e. taking place in a lab or online). Furthermore, though it wasn’t controlled in the study, the researchers believe time of day could have impacted the effect size as daily horoscopes provide predictions about the rest of the day. Therefore, they suggest that one might expect a greater effect when participants read daily horoscopes in the morning.
Despite these limitations, Clobert et al. have shed some light on the effects reading a daily horoscope can have on a range of tasks. Perhaps most interesting is the implication that if the expectation effect was indeed the driving mechanisms underlying the effects observed within each experiment, engaging in reading horoscopes may improve performance in cognitive and creative tasks. Granted, as this study has shown, personality traits and individual differences likely mediate this effect but, much as placebos have proven surprisingly effective in medicine, our expectations may have a more profound effect on our performance than we know.
References
Clobert, M., Van Cappellen, P., Bourdon, M., & Cohen, A. B. (2016). Good day for Leos: Horoscope’s influence on perception, cognitive performances, and creativity. Personality and Individual Differences, 101, 348-355.
Fichten, C. S., & Sunerton, B. (1983). Popular
horoscopes and the “Barnum effect”. The Journal of Psychology, 114(1),
123-134.